Climate Policy
Climate Policy 5 (2006) 517–530
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Research Article
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A spatial approach to baseline and leakage in CDM forest carbon sinks projects
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Michael Dutschke, Sonja Butzengeiger and Axel Michaelowa
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Received 27 July 2004
; received in revised form 21 October 2005
; accepted 2 November 2005
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Abstract
Forestry projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) face specific challenges with regard to determination of a baseline for carbon sequestration. We propose a semi-standardized approach called PARAPIA for calculation of a baseline that is built on the concept of a reference area around the project area whose land-use characteristics determine the baseline scenario. The land-use shares in the reference area are checked at each verification. Baseline carbon stocks are then derived ex post using the average carbon content of each land-use type. The reference area is between five and ten times larger than the project area. To determine indirect effects (the so-called ‘leakage’), a political influence area such as province or state is assessed with regards to migration flows due to the project and related emissions.
Keywords: CDM; Baseline; Forestry; Leakage
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