Climate Policy
Climate Policy 5 (2006) 531–548
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Research Article
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Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios
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Paul A Steenhof and Malcolm R Hill
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Received 27 October 2004
; accepted 24 November 2005
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Abstract
This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period.
Keywords: Russia; Electricity sector; Kyoto Protocol; Greenhouse gases; Emission scenarios
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